Many developing economies are graveyards of infrastructure projects. In almost every country in Africa, Asia or South America, there are legacies of failed attempts to “develop communities” and “lift people out of poverty”.
Power stations that did not live up to their potential. School buildings that housed no education activities. Dams that never tasted water. Multi-laned roads that conveyed only 1% of the traffic they were designed to accommodate. And lots more. Even developed climes are not left out. The 4,700-megawatt Fukishima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan, the Subansiri hydropower dam in India and the Nagarjuna oil refinery are loud examples of infrastructure failures.
Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg worded it correctly when he said “There have always been big projects that failed. What is different now is that we have many more megaprojects , they are much bigger, and there are spectacular failures that are more visible.” While some projects fail structurally, others fail functionally. However, the vast majority have buckled under the weights of political influences, the Covid-19 pandemic, an evolving userbase and now new demands posed by a warming planet. Beyond piecing steel and concrete together, infrastructure experts must major on structures and systems that can withstand the environmental, political and cyber threats of the 21st century. This is what project resilience in about.
Infrastructure is resilient when it withstands stressors, adapts to changing circumstances and recovers positively from sudden shocks. It’s an asset that can continue to perform its basic functions even when some of its vital elements do not survive disaster. For the better part of the 20th century, resilience meant the capacity, flexibility, tolerance and cohesiveness to accommodate a rising population, natural disasters, harsh natural elements and even terrorist attacks. However, the new realities of global warming and the fourth industrial revolution are raising the bar faster than most infrastructure experts realise. A warming global climate and natural disasters are two of the most impactful project risks identified in the World Economic Forum’s 2017 Global Risks report. According to the United Nations, the global cost of natural disasters from 2003 to 2013 alone was $1.5 trillion. More recent global warming models now predict a higher frequency and severity of natural disasters. Evidence of such, is the recent flooding threats across the world that millions of unfortunate people have had to face. Therefore, we must immunise our infrastructure assets against such threats amongst many others. In the coming decades, project resilience will incorporate elements of cybersecurity, sustainability and net-zero considerations. Although these requirements are already being discussed in various academic and industrial forums, they should be concretised into enforceable regulations in the nearest future.
